AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) surged 8.38% to $63.34 on Tuesday after Washington publicly endorsed the company’s satellite partnership with Japan’s Rakuten Group by name.
The endorsement came through the U.S.-Japan Technology Prosperity Deal, issued following a meeting between White House science chief Michael Kratsios and Japanese minister Toshiharu Furukawa in Kyoto on October 4, 2026.
The joint statement read: “Both sides welcomed Japan’s Rakuten Group and the U.S.-based AST SpaceMobile cooperation for the development and deployment of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite infrastructure.”
The two governments also committed to Indo-Pacific connectivity work “through the use of government financing and assistance that mobilizes the private sector,” giving the deal a broader strategic dimension.
Tuesday’s rally is notable given the stock had fallen 11.62% between September 8 and October 5, and remains down 12.79% year to date heading into the fourth quarter.
Japan’s communications ministry has initially selected the Rakuten joint venture for its J-LEO initiative, a program worth up to approximately $1 billion, which management sees as validation of a wider global infrastructure trend.
President Scott Wisniewski described the significance of the award on an August earnings call, saying: “We see the J-LEO project as a real proof point for how countries, large countries, are thinking about their own infrastructure. This is infrastructure they can control and get access to.”
Management noted that Japanese-flagged satellites represent “roughly half of the investment on those satellites” in capital described as “non-dilutive and non-debt,” a meaningful distinction for a company still burning through cash.
When asked whether other nations might pursue similar arrangements, management responded: “I don’t know why a G20 country wouldn’t want this kind of capability given the price.”
The outside capital is particularly important because AST SpaceMobile’s financials remain under pressure, with Q2 revenue of $31.52 million missing the $34.40 million consensus estimate and EPS of -$0.77 falling well short of the -$0.29 expectation.
The company confirmed its 2026 revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million, and reported pro forma liquidity exceeding $3.70 billion, providing some cushion as it pushes toward commercial scale.
CEO Abel Avellan pointed to the company’s strategic positioning, stating: “Our growing commercial and government programs, expansive spectrum portfolio, and fortified balance sheet provide us with the flexibility to capture opportunities across an expanding total addressable market.”
Sector peers Globalstar (NASDAQ: GSAT) and Iridium Communications (NASDAQ: IRDM) have significantly outperformed AST SpaceMobile in 2026, with Globalstar up 36.65% and Iridium rising 185.59% year to date.
On Tuesday, however, those two peers barely moved, with Globalstar dipping 0.16% and Iridium gaining just 1.2%, suggesting the rally was driven specifically by AST SpaceMobile’s bilateral endorsement rather than broader sector momentum.
AST SpaceMobile’s valuation reflects the scale of investor expectations, with the stock trading at 197 times trailing sales compared to just 39 times for Globalstar.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) analyst Adam Jonas separately repeated his Outperform rating on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) with a $300 price target, noting investors have only a few weeks to act ahead of the next Starship test flight.
SpaceX itself rose just 2% on the day, while AST SpaceMobile posted the largest gain across the sector, underscoring how directly the State Department’s endorsement moved markets.
The J-LEO award still requires government approvals and final agreements before it is fully secured, leaving execution risk on the table as the company scales its constellation.
AST SpaceMobile is targeting approximately 45 satellites in orbit by early 2027, up from 13 currently, and plans to launch beta service before the year is out.
